Writing in the Times, William Rees Mogg predicts a hung parliament. I have mentioned before that the 2010 general election is a unique opportunity for those who wish to see an Independent England, for it promises to remove the democratic legitimacy of the UK government to govern for the whole of the UK.
Most likely in my view is that the Conservatives will win an overall majority, however, they will be 3rd in terms of seats in Scotland and Wales, and this will deny them legitimacy in these countries. In this event, you can be sure the Scottish Parliament and Welsh Assembly will demand and almost certainly be granted, new powers. An alternative (though much less likely) is that Labour win a small overall majority, thanks to their vote in Scotland and Wales holding up better than expected. They would have won much less seats and votes than the Conservatives in England, but will hold power through the seats of MP in other countries. In this scenario, how likely do you think it is England would be granted a parliament? Who will stand up for the people of England?
Finally, there is Lord Rees-Mogg's prediction of a hung parliament. In this event the Conservatives would again be the biggest party in England, and the clear majority and mandate voted for by the people of England would be denied by the votes of the Scots and Welsh. Where is the justice, where is the democracy, in that?
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2 comments:
The one omission from this analysis is: What if the BNP win a very large proportion of the vote?
I believe it is possible that the BNP could cause a major upset (don't get me wrong - I'm not a BNP supporter - but as a PROTEST vote, I wouldn't underestimate them - my impression is that their support is growing all the time).
A large BNP showing could bring a number of issues to the forefront: immigration, EU membership, the English question (BNP supports an English parliament, but for different reasons).
What if the BNP won, say, 20% of the vote?
Scabbard, thanks for your comment. I don't see the BNP getting such a high percentage of the vote - certainly not nationally.
There me be some constituencies where their vote spikes higher and is enough to affect who wins the seat in that onstituency, but I don't see them winning any seats.
For a start, if there was a seat where they began polling enough to look like winning, i think you would see tactical voting by the supporters of the 'main' parties to stop that happening.
I do see them squeezing Labour's vote in some constituencies, as UKIP will do to the Conservatives. For this reason I think predictions will be very hard to get right.
What I will say is that I hope frevently that the BNP do not do at all well.
I loathe their racism, their extreme left-wing labour and economic policies, and of course their Unionism. I am campaigning for a tolerant, independent England with a civic view of citizenship. I see from your profile that you want to see something very similar, and I hope you'll be a regular reader and commenter, and help spread the word for the campaign.
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