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Wednesday, 20 January 2010

Why 2010 is so important... (part 1)

You may have seen Iain Dale's prediction for the 2010 election.
He is predicting a narrow Conservative majority of just 12 seats. Amazingly, this corresponds almost exactly to the number of seats he is predicting the Conservatives will win outside England (13).
If his breakdown is correct, the 'United Kingdom Government' will have just 9 out of 40 seats in Wales and 4 out of 59 seats in Scotland. This will give them virtually no democratic mandate to rule the whole of the UK, and rob the UK of any claim to legitimacy as a unified state. Their power will rest almost solely on winning 318 out of 529 English seats.

I don't pretend to have the same knowledge of parliamentary constituencies and how the basic poll figures translate into seats as Iain. What I do know, however, is that such a situation will lead to uproar in Scotland (and to a lesser extent, Wales) and almost certainly be used to transfer more powers to Holyrood and Cardiff. The democratic deficit in England will increase, as the Conservatives have no meaningful policies to deal with the West Lothian Question (their main idea is to ignore it, as it's something of an embarrassment for a Unionist party to have a power base almost entirely English).
And so England will remain the only country in the UK (or EU) without a parliament or national assembly, unless we can grasp the nettle now and start campaigning for justice and democracy for England.

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