Mark Reckons has an analysis of Iain Dale's 2010 prediction.
He makes some good points, but ignores the central point, that England's clear vote for a Conservative government with a clear majority would be being denied by Scottish and Welsh votes.
Showing posts with label Iain Dale. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Iain Dale. Show all posts
Wednesday, 20 January 2010
Why 2010 is so important... (part 2)
A thought experiment, if you will indulge me.
Forgive me, Iain Dale, for asking my readers to imagine your prediction is wrong. Imagine the SNP do better than you've predicted, or UKIP squeeze the Conservatives in a few key marginals. Imagine, in short, that the Conservatives fall a few seats short of an overall majority.
The clear choice of the English people would be a Conservative government, denied by the choices of voters in the rest of the United Kingdom.
Forgive me, Iain Dale, for asking my readers to imagine your prediction is wrong. Imagine the SNP do better than you've predicted, or UKIP squeeze the Conservatives in a few key marginals. Imagine, in short, that the Conservatives fall a few seats short of an overall majority.
The clear choice of the English people would be a Conservative government, denied by the choices of voters in the rest of the United Kingdom.
Why 2010 is so important... (part 1)
You may have seen Iain Dale's prediction for the 2010 election.
He is predicting a narrow Conservative majority of just 12 seats. Amazingly, this corresponds almost exactly to the number of seats he is predicting the Conservatives will win outside England (13).
If his breakdown is correct, the 'United Kingdom Government' will have just 9 out of 40 seats in Wales and 4 out of 59 seats in Scotland. This will give them virtually no democratic mandate to rule the whole of the UK, and rob the UK of any claim to legitimacy as a unified state. Their power will rest almost solely on winning 318 out of 529 English seats.
He is predicting a narrow Conservative majority of just 12 seats. Amazingly, this corresponds almost exactly to the number of seats he is predicting the Conservatives will win outside England (13).
If his breakdown is correct, the 'United Kingdom Government' will have just 9 out of 40 seats in Wales and 4 out of 59 seats in Scotland. This will give them virtually no democratic mandate to rule the whole of the UK, and rob the UK of any claim to legitimacy as a unified state. Their power will rest almost solely on winning 318 out of 529 English seats.
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